![]() ![]() The moisture, as well as the forcing from the front and trough, will be mechanisms of the development of showers and thunderstorms. This will increase the low-level moisture amounts through the night, but how quickly the wind shift and dewpoints climb will be crucial for determining how much rain and how buoyant the atmosphere will be. Models are agreeing on switching the wind flow from the north to the southeast. The weather for the Big Bend and South Georgia is forecast to be tranquil for the daytime hours Wednesday, but things will begin to change after dusk. By Wednesday morning, the low is forecast to inch eastward through Oklahoma with the front dragging through eastern Texas. That trough is forecast to help the development of a center of low pressure at the surface along with a cold front. This would allow for better odds of stronger to severe thunderstorms.Ī large trough of low pressure in the mid- to upper-levels of the atmosphere was advancing westward Tuesday afternoon. Recent guidance model runs do show higher dewpoints and convective energy (CAPE) over Franklin County with one model extending that slightly farther north in the Big Bend.Īs daytime heating increases during the morning and early afternoon, the line may get a boost in improved convective energy. One exception may be, as the SPC noted Wednesday afternoon, higher moisture levels and convective energy as a warm front lifts north would increase the odds of severe weather in the southwestern viewing area. But a limiting factor will likely be the limited instability through the night into the morning. Wind shear, the different wind speeds and directions with increased height above the Earth’s surface will be fairly high as the cold front and squall line approach the viewing area early Thursday morning through the rest of the day. The primary severe weather modes of concern, though low, are damaging thunderstorm winds and isolated tornadoes. SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday, Oct.
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